Mobile payment and the business of predicting

For a while it looked as though Google Wallet was going to take the world by storm. At least, last year many an expert predicted as much. This year, they are predicting instead that the likes of banks, Visa and Paypal will grab and run with that ball.

In Gigaom.com, Kevin Fitchard writes, “Google and the carriers had their chance. Now it’s the banks’ turn.” He bases his prediction in part on a question Cheaton Sarma Consulting recently put to selected mobile industry leaders: “Who will define the mobile payment/commerce space?” Nearly 40 percent selected the answer, “Financial guys, e.g., Visa.” Less than 15 percent voted for Google, and only about 3 percent chose Apple.

I draw a couple of insights from survey results like that, one of them being that predicting the future is tantamount to setting yourself up to be inevitably wrong. The future has a habit of making hairpin turns even that even experts are powerless to foresee.

This is especially true for high-tech industries, which evolve blazingly fast. Not long ago, no one would have predicted that Apple Computer would one day drop “Computer” from its name, much less  turn the music, publishing, banking, photography and other industries upside-down by introducing—of all things—a phone. Or that, given its late start, the Android platform would have an iota of a chance in catching up, much less giving Apple a run for its money. Or that, speaking of late starts, old-tech Visa might stage a comeback and threaten to retake the reins of the electronic point-of-purchase future after all.

In that spirit, here is my other insight for mobile payments: Regardless of predictions, it’s decision time for banks. As Amir Tabakovic from BAI states, “Whether they fly solo or with partners, financial institutions need to begin placing their bets in the mobile wallet game.”

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